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andrew cullen's avatar

Excellent piece Charlie. It seems central bankers and supranational bankers have all forgotten the crowing out advice from Hume, Smith and Hamilton. They will undoubtedly save the public sector, at least in the near term, at the risk of private capital. Deflation anyone?

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Charlie Crowson's avatar

Hi Andrew,

It almost feels wrong to talk about it, but with the delayed effect of rate hikes, falling M2, an immanent credit crunch resulting from this crowding out effect and inverted curve, deflation is a distinct possibility.

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andrew cullen's avatar

I find it interesting - nod to R Napier - that certain EU countries are attempting to fiscally engineer g > r through the bank channel. France, Italy, Germany, etc are directing the banks to lend into certain sectors. In the US the market is entirely missing the coming credit contraction...it has already started. I give the Fed credit for focusing on their price stability mandate...though they may be chasing old data. Meanwhile...more bank failures are on the way...

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